| Market Tightness Index1 | Sales Volume Index2 | Equity Financing Index3 | Debt Financing Index4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
October 2019 |
54 |
46 |
55 |
75 |
|
July 2019 |
60 |
48 |
56 |
80 |
|
April 2019 |
52 |
45 |
53 |
81 |
|
January 2019 |
46 |
33 |
50 |
59 |
|
October 2018 |
41 |
44 |
51 |
22 |
|
July 2018 |
46 |
55 |
56 |
55 |
|
April 2018 |
38 |
43 |
54 |
36 |
|
January 2018 |
36 |
40 |
58 |
38 |
|
October 2017 |
37 |
45 |
46 |
51 |
|
July 2017 |
43 |
47 |
46 |
47 |
|
April 2017 |
41 |
30 |
42 |
41 |
|
January 2017 |
25 |
25 |
33 |
14 |
|
October 2016 |
28 |
42 |
33 |
38 |
|
July 2016 |
43 |
50 |
44 |
62 |
|
April 2016 |
43 |
53 |
45 |
50 |
|
January 2016 |
47 |
46 |
46 |
37 |
|
October 2015 |
53 |
53 |
52 |
54 |
The reported index numbers are based on data compiled from quarterly surveys of NMHC members. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, from the previous quarter. The indexes are standard diffusion indexes, hence are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction and scope of changes. They are calculated by taking one-half the difference between positive (tighter markets, higher sales volume, equity financing more available, a better time to borrow) and negative (looser markets, lower sales volume, equity financing less available, a worse time to borrow) responses and adding 50. This produces a series bounded by 0 (if all respondents answered in the negative) and 100 (if all respondents answered in the positive).
1 A Market Tightness Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, apartment markets around the country are getting tighter; a reading below 50 indicates that market conditions are getting looser; and a reading of 50 indicates that market conditions are unchanged.
2 A Sales Volume Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, sales volume and the country is increasing; a reading below 50 indicates that sales volume is decreasing; and a reading of 50 indicates that market conditions are unchanged.
3 An Equity Financing Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, equity finance is more available; a reading below 50 indicates that equity finance is less available; and a reading of 50 indicates that equity finance availability is unchanged.
4 A Debt Financing Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, borrowing conditions are improving; below 50 indicates that borrowing conditions are worsening; a reading of 50 indicates borrowing conditions are unchanged.
For the complete historical series, please visit www.nmhc.org/quarterly-survey.
INDEX TRENDS
SURVEY QUESTIONS
| Question #1: How are apartment market conditions in the local markets that you watch? “Tight” markets are defined as those with low vacancies and high rent increases. Conditions obviously vary greatly from place to place, but on balance, apartment market conditions in your markets today are: | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
October 2019 | July 2019 | April 2019 | |
|
Tighter than three months ago |
20% | 32% | 30% | |
|
Looser than three months ago |
12% | 11% | 25% | |
|
About unchanged from three months ago |
69% | 57% | 45% | |
|
Don’t know or not applicable |
0% | 0% | 1% | |
| Question #2: What about sales of apartment properties in the local markets you watch? The sales volume (number of deals) currently is: | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
|
October 2019 | July 2019 | April 2019 |
|
Higher than three months ago |
23% | 22% | 19% |
|
Lower than three months ago |
31% | 26% | 28% |
|
About unchanged from three months ago |
41% | 45% | 50% |
|
Don’t know or not applicable |
5% | 7% | 2% |
| Question #3: What about equity financing for apartment acquisition or development? Considering both price and non-price terms, equity financing today is: | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
|
October 2019 | July 2019 | April 2019 |
|
More available than three months ago |
18% | 20% | 16% |
|
Less available than three months ago |
9% | 8% | 9% |
|
About unchanged from three months ago |
60% | 61% | 61% |
|
Don’t know or not applicable |
14% | 11% | 14% |
| Question #4: What about the conditions for multifamily mortgage borrowing? Considering both interest rates and non-rate terms, compared to three months ago: | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
October 2019 | July 2019 | April 2019 | |
|
Now is a better time to borrow |
58% | 61% | 61% | |
|
Now is a worse time to borrow |
8% | 2% | 0% | |
|
About unchanged from three months ago |
27% | 30% | 32% | |
|
Don’t know or not applicable |
7% | 7% | 7% | |
| Question #5: An increasing number of jurisdictions recently either have imposed (or strengthened) rent control/limitation or are seriously considering doing so. We would like to know whether this has affected your investment or development decisions. | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
Excluding “We do not operate in these markets | |
|
We have cut back on investment or development in these markets. |
20% | 34% |
|
We have made no changes yet but are considering doing so in these markets. |
27% | 46% |
|
We do not plan any change in investment or development in these markets. |
12% | 20% |
|
We do not operate in these markets. |
42% | N/A |
Note: The October 2019 Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions was conducted October 7 - October 14, 2019; 102 CEOs and other senior executives of apartment-related firms nationwide responded.
