National Multifamily Housing Council
Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions
(October 2015)
|
|
Market Tightness Index1 |
Sales Volume |
Equity Financing Index3 |
Debt Financing Index4 |
| October 2015 | 53 | 53 | 52 | 54 |
|
July 2015 |
61 |
53 |
49 |
35 |
|
April 2015 |
58 |
52 |
55 |
60 |
|
January 2015 |
51 |
44 |
55 |
71 |
|
October 2014 |
52 |
58 |
54 |
71 |
|
July 2014 |
68 |
56 |
58 |
68 |
|
April 2014 |
56 |
52 |
53 |
63 |
|
January 2014 |
41 |
41 |
50 |
42 |
|
October 2013 |
46 |
46 |
39 |
41 |
|
July 2013 |
55 |
46 |
49 |
20 |
|
April 2013 |
54 |
55 |
56 |
59 |
|
January 2013 |
45 |
49 |
56 |
57 |
|
October 2012 |
56 |
51 |
56 |
65 |
|
July 2012 |
76 |
54 |
58 |
77 |
|
April 2012 |
74 |
57 |
62 |
65 |
|
January 2012 |
60 |
50 |
60 |
74 |
|
October 2011 |
52 |
54 |
54 |
70 |
The reported index numbers are based on data compiled from quarterly surveys of NMHC members. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, from the previous quarter. The indexes are standard diffusion indexes, hence are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction and scope of changes. They are calculated by taking one-half the difference between positive (tighter markets, higher sales volume, equity financing more available, a better time to borrow) and negative (looser markets, lower sales volume, equity financing less available, a worse time to borrow) responses and adding 50. This produces a series bounded by 0 (if all respondents answered in the negative) and 100 (if all respondents answered in the positive).
1 A Market Tightness Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, apartment markets around the country are getting tighter; a reading below 50 indicates that market conditions are getting looser; and a reading of 50 indicates that market conditions are unchanged.
2 A Sales Volume Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, sales volume and the country is increasing; a reading below 50 indicates that sales volume is decreasing; and a reading of 50 indicates that market conditions are unchanged.
3 An Equity Financing Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, equity finance is more available; a reading below 50 indicates that equity finance is less available; and a reading of 50 indicates that equity finance availability is unchanged.
4 A Debt Financing Index reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, borrowing conditions are improving; below 50 indicates that borrowing conditions are worsening; a reading of 50 indicates borrowing conditions are unchanged.
For the complete historical series, please visit www.nmhc.org/quarterlysurvey.
INDEX TRENDS
 |
SURVEY QUESTIONS
|
Question #1: How are apartment market conditions in the local markets that you watch? “Tight” markets are defined as those with low vacancies and high rent increases. Conditions obviously vary greatly from place to place, but on balance, apartment market conditions in your markets today are: |
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|
|
October 2015 |
July 2015 |
October 2014 |
|
Tighter than three months ago |
23% |
37% |
26% |
|
Looser than three months ago |
16% |
14% |
22% |
|
About unchanged from three months ago |
60% |
49% |
52% |
|
Don’t know or not applicable |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
Question #2: What about sales of apartment properties in the local markets you watch? The sales volume (number of deals) currently is: |
|||
|
|
October 2015 |
July 2015 |
October 2014 |
|
Higher than three months ago |
28% |
28% |
27% |
|
Lower than three months ago |
22% |
22% |
11% |
|
About unchanged from three months ago |
47% |
44% |
56% |
|
Don’t know or not applicable |
2% |
6% |
6% |
|
Question #3: What about equity financing for apartment acquisition or development? Considering both price and non-price terms, equity financing today is: |
|||
|
|
October 2015 |
July 2015 |
October 2014 |
|
More available than three months ago |
17% |
15% |
19% |
|
Less available than three months ago |
13% |
16% |
11% |
|
About unchanged from three months ago |
65% |
59% |
54% |
|
Don’t know or not applicable |
6% |
10% |
15% |
|
Question #4: What about the conditions for multifamily mortgage borrowing? Considering both interest rates and non-rate terms, compared to three months ago: |
|||
|
|
October 2015 |
July 2015 |
October 2014 |
|
Now is a better time to borrow |
22% |
8% |
45% |
|
Now is a worse time to borrow |
13% |
38% |
2% |
|
About unchanged from three months ago |
61% |
45% |
41% |
|
Don’t know or not applicable |
4% |
8% |
12% |
|
Question #5: Based on the markets you are familiar with, new apartment construction is: |
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|
|
|
Excluding Don’t Know |
|
Higher than three months ago |
35% |
35% |
|
Lower than three months ago |
14% |
14% |
|
About unchanged from three months ago |
51% |
51% |
|
Don’t know or not applicable |
1% |
N/A |
Note: The October 2015 Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions was conducted October 13 - October 20, 2015; 120 CEOs and other senior executives of apartment-related firms nationwide responded. The July 2015 Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions was conducted July 20 - July 23, 2015; 123 CEOs and other senior executives of apartment-related firms nationwide responded. The April 2015 Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions was conducted April 13-April 20; 154 CEOs and other senior executives of apartment-related firms nationwide responded.
